Ten NFL Bets I Love

With football season starting just around the corner it's just about time for me to do something I do every year; pick out at least 10 online bets that I would consider to be a really good value. Normally I would just put this down somewhere and save it for the end of the year but I thought this might be interesting enough to put on here. The bets are from sportsbook.com and they aren't in any real order, just whichever I come across first.

1. Philip Rivers to win NFL MVP, + 1200

The MVP award usually goes to a quarterback who leads his team to a division title while also putting up big numbers to win the voters over. Other then Aaron Rodgers, I don't think there is a better lock to meet those criteria then Philip Rivers. He threw for 4700 yards and 30 touchdowns last year and that's without Vincent Jackson being there for 6 games. Add in the sting of missing the playoffs last year along with the very real possibility that Aaron Rodgers ends up missing a few games like last year and I believe that Rivers is as good a candidate as you'll find. He's also considered a long shot apparently by sportsbook.com as you'd only have to bet $10 to win $120 and this first bet is a great, great value.

2. Cam Newton to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, +400

At first I was going to put a combo of both Cam Newton and Julio Jones as they both have the same 4-to-1 odds so putting the same amount on both would give you basically 2-to-1 odds that one of them hits and ends up with the award but for the sake of this list, I decided to just pick the one I thought was more likely to win. While I love Julio Jones, it's hard enough for a rookie wide receiver to get up to speed with a full off-season, let alone a lockout. And while that'll give Newton problems as well, I just think Newton is going to have tons of chances to prove he can play and he'll win the award with his legs, not his arm.

3. Sam Bradford to have the Most Passing Yards, +2000

4. Philip Rivers to have the Most Passing Yards, +270

I'm piggybacking a little bit off of the Bradford hype but with odds like this, it's hard to not like the idea of throwing a 20 dollar bill on him and if he happens to put everything together with as much as they throw the ball, you could have a $400 ticket at the end of the year. They are going to throw the ball a lot like they did last year and while I don't think this is one that is very likely, the fact that the odds are so big makes it worth a second look if only for the fun of rooting for the second year quarterback throughout the year.

Philip Rivers on the other hand is the favorite in this category but it doesn't make him a bad bet. He managed to throw for the most yards while missing a combined 17 games from his two best targets in Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. It isn't flashy, but it's a solid bet.

5. Ray Rice to have the Most Rushing Yards, +2000

6. Adrian Peterson to have the Most Rushing Yards, +300

Another unlikely one with Ray Rice, but with McGahee gone I expect Rice to get close to the curse of 370 and with a little luck, he can certainly be right in the mix for a chance at the rushing title. With the odds he's getting this is much like the Bradford pick in one that could just be fun to root for but there is value to be had with Ray Rice. As for Peterson, he's also the favorite but for good reason. He's the most talented back in the entire league with a good-but-not-great quarterback. He's going to get more then enough carries to get the most yards and I'd say he probably will. Still, with 3-to-1 odds it's hard to not see the value there.

7. Sam Bradford +4.5 to throw more Touchdowns then Joe Flacco

Another Bradford love bet, last year Flacco threw 7 more touchdowns then Bradford. But the jump from rookie to sophomore should be big for last year's #1 draft pick and while I don't think Flacco is going to have a big drop off, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradford throw for more touchdowns before even factoring in the spread. Add the fact that it's a pretty big number at 4.5 and I think this is a pretty safe bet.

8. Larry Fitzgerald +90.5 to have more Receiving Yards then Greg Jennings

Larry Fitzgerald is going to catch a lot of passes. I mean, a ton. He had 170 targets last year and instead of a ragtag group of under-achieving quarterbacks he's going to have Kevin Kolb under center throwing him the ball. Meanwhile, with JerMichael Finley back and the numerous weapons that Aaron Rodgers has at his disposal, I just don't see how Greg Jennings is going to be able to have 90 more yards then Fitzgerald.

9. Roddy White -1.5 to have more Touchdowns then Hakeem Nicks

This bet is most about the fact I expect the Giants to be on the down slide this season coupled with teh fact I expect the Falcons to be airing the ball out all year long. Julio Jones will be raw but he should help take some of the pressure off of Roddy White so while I expect Roddy's catches and yards to go down this year, I'd be surprised if he doesn't have at least as many touchdowns as he did last season if not a few more.

10. Calvin Johnson -2.5 to have more Touchdowns then Dwayne Bowe

I know there is a ton of hype around the Lions coming into the season. While I'm not on that bandwagon nearly as much as most people are (I think they are going to be the NFC version of the Texans these past few years, mostly hype) I am a huge Megatron fan. I also know that Bowe led the league in touchdowns last year. But instead of having one of the easiest schedules this year, they are going to have one of the hardest. Because of that, I really expect for Matt Cassel to fall off while if Johnson can get 8 games out of Stafford, I think he has a real chance to have 5 more touchdowns then Bowe will.